Module Prices Narrowly Increased but High-Priced Resources Still Face Resistance [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM August 25 News:

Silicon Metal

Price

Last week, the price of silicon metal fluctuated considerably. On Friday, SMM's oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was priced at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was priced at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt. In the futures market, influenced by market news, the most-traded SI2511 futures contract for silicon metal fluctuated considerably around 8,200-8,800 yuan/mt. Downstream users and traders were buying the dip.

Production

On the supply side, a small amount of new production resumptions led to an increase in output, with recent supply-side production maintaining a slight upward trend.

Inventory

Social Inventory: As of August 21, SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 543,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW. Among this, the general warehouse inventory was 117,000 mt, unchanged from the previous week, while the delivery warehouse inventory (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo) was 426,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 46-52 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 48.15 yuan/kg. Granular polysilicon was quoted at 45-47 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained relatively stable over the weekend. Prices from major enterprises increased last week, and transactions for polysilicon are expected to begin soon, with the market watching for transaction outcomes.

Production

In August, production has been temporarily stable. The convening of meetings has increased uncertainty regarding future production schedules, and there is a high probability of MoM production cuts in September.

Inventory

Currently, polysilicon inventory has slightly increased, but the imbalance in inventory structure has intensified. Some companies have very low inventories, while others have high inventories, leading to a higher concentration of inventory.

Module

Price

Recently, low-price quotations for distributed systems have risen, and the intensity of low-price competition in the market has decreased somewhat. Transaction prices for top-tier enterprises have also increased recently, but it remains difficult to close deals above 0.7 yuan/W. Recently, the cost support for modules has strengthened due to adjustments in solar cell prices, but installation demand continues to decline, and overseas stockpiling has largely been accepted. It is expected that module prices will continue to be determined through bargaining. Current prices for high-efficiency Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N distributed modules are 0.675 yuan/W, 0.697 yuan/W, and 0.677 yuan/W, respectively. For centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules, the prices are 0.659 yuan/W and 0.674 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Domestic module factories' production schedules have been relatively stable over the past week. August production is expected to be similar to July, but some factories will start cutting production in September.

Inventory

Weekly inventory, domestic module inventories have continued to rise slightly over the past week, mainly due to a decline in demand.

High-purity quartz sand

Prices

Current domestic prices for inner layer sand are 59,000-64,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand 27,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand 17,000-22,000 yuan/mt. Recently, the price of domestically produced high-purity quartz sand has remained stable. On the cost side, the price of imported ore has increased slightly, enhancing the cost support for domestic sand enterprises. However, demand remains stable, and sand enterprise quotations are temporarily stable. The subsequent trend will continue to be characterized by a stalemate.

Production

Recently, domestic sand enterprises have seen both increases and decreases in operations, with August quartz sand production expected to increase slightly MoM from July.

Inventory

Sand enterprise inventories have remained largely stable, with no significant changes.

PV glass

Prices

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 17.5-18.5 yuan/m², with prices remaining stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 18.5-19.5 yuan/m², with prices remaining stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 11-11.5 yuan/m². This week, the association will convene glass companies to discuss market conditions. Over the past week, domestic glass companies have seen a slight decrease in orders, but the decline in inventory levels is expected to support the sentiment for price increases. Most glass companies have already started planning to increase prices for new orders in September.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 12-12.5 yuan/m², with prices remaining stable.

Production

Domestic glass production has recently increased, with daily melting capacity rising by nearly 1,500 mt/day compared to earlier.

Inventory

Glass inventories have continued to decline, with the industry's average days of inventories dropping to around 23 days.